Musi wa7 Chikumi, Freightwaves yakaburitsa chinyorwa chakasainwa naHenry Byers, icho chinoongorora zvikonzero zvakawanda zvekuderera kwekudiwa kwezvinhu zvinopinzwa muUS, izvo zvakakosha kutongwa nemakambani anopinzwa nekutengesa zvinhu kunze kwenyika. Zvinoratidza Reflex, Zvinobatanidza zveTerminal Block
uye Chinongedzo chedin chine mapini mana zvinofanira kucherechedzwa.
Ruzivo rwekubhuka macontainer ekutakura rwunoratidza kuti kunyangwe huwandu hwakasimba hwe2022 mumwedzi mishanu yekutanga ya2022. Sezvo huwandu hwezvinhu muPacific huchiri hwakagadzikana, Freightos (Chinyorwa cheMupepeti: Mapuratifomu ekubhadhara zvinhu zvekutakura) yakaratidza mitengo yemacontainer, kubva kuChina kuenda kumahombekombe ekumadokero, yakaderera ne38 muzana pamwedzi kusvika pamadhora zviuru mapfumbamwe nemakumi matanhatu nemakumi matatu.
Kunyange hazvo kutakura zvinhu kuchiwedzera purofiti yekutakura zvinhu, makambani ekuAmerica ekutakura zvinhu nevatengesi vepakati pemota vanogona kutanga kuona kudzikira kwekutakura zvinhu.
Maitiro ekutenga zvinhu nevatengi ari kukurumidza kugadzikana kusvika padanho repamberi pedenda, ukuwo vatengesi vemuUS vari kutambudzwa nemidziyo yakawanda. Migove yakatarwa yakadonha neChipiri mangwanani mushure mekunge vakuru vekambani vati vaizopa zvidzikiso, kukanzura maodha ekutenga uye kuita chiito nekukurumidza kubvisa midziyo yakawanda.
Izvi zvakakonzerawo kudzikira kwe36 muzana kwemitengo yezvinhu zvinotengeswa mumakontena kubva kuUS kubva kune dzimwe nyika dzese, kungave gore negore, kana kudzokera padanho remwaka wezhizha we2020. Saka chii chakakonzera kudzikira kwakamwe kamwe kwemitengo yezvinhu zvinotengeswa mumakontena? Zvinhu zvinotevera zviri pamwe chete kuti zvitsanangure kudzikira kwakamwe kamwe kwenhamba.
zvakawandisa
Chikonzero chikuru ndechekusaririra kwemasheya ekuUS. Izvi zvinokonzerwa nemakambani ari kuedza kuzadza akawanda emidziyo yakapera muna 2021, ukuwo achidawo kuchengetedza masheya akakwana ekugadzirisa zvimwe zvinokanganisa mafambiro ezvekufambisa. Kunetseka uku kwakawedzerwa nekutenderera kwakatevedzana kwemitemo yekuvharirwa, asi njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika dzakaita sedziri kuwedzera mushure mekusawirirana kwemazuva anopfuura zana apfuura; makambani akasarudza, zviri nani kana zvakaipa pane kutarisana nenjodzi yekuwedzera kamwe kamwe kwezvinodiwa nevatengi nezvinhu kunze kwenyika.
Saka kana tsika yevatengi yava kuchinja kubva pazvinhu kuenda kumasevhisi, makambani aya ekugadzira zvinhu anogona kubatwa nekuunganidza zvinhu zvakawanda kana kuti zvinhu zvisiri izvo kuti awane kutengeswa kwakakodzera. Kuunganidzwa kwezvinhu zvichange zvichikonzera kudzikira kwemitengo mitsva yekutenga zvinhu, nokudaro zvichiwedzera kukanganiswa kwatinoona pakudiwa kwezvinhu zvinopinzwa mumidziyo yeUS. NeChipiri, Target yakazivisa chirongwa chekuderedza zvinhu "chinotyisa" chakatarisana nekukanzura maodha uye kukwidziridzwa kwemitengo.
Pamusoro, zvichiratidza zvinhu zviri kutengeswa zvichikwira, uye pasi, zvichiratidza kudzikira kwezvinhu zvinopinzwa kunze kwenyika, vatengesi vari kuderedza kumhanya kwema network avo mushure mekunge kuwanda kwekutakura zvinhu kwasvika kumahombekombe eUS.
Vatengi vari kudzvinyirirwa
Sezvo inflation ichiramba ichikwira uye mitengo ichikwira, vatengi vari kuita sevari kuwedzera kuipa. Vhiki rino chete, AAA (chinyorwa chemupepeti: American Automobile Association, AAA) yakashuma kukwira kutsva kwemadhora $4.51 pagaroni.
Vamwe nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi vanofungidzira kuti tinogona kuona "kukwira kwemitengo" sezvo Fed inotanga kukwidza mitengo yemubereko uye kudzikisa bhajeti rayo. Zvisinei, kunyangwe kudzvanywa kwemitengo kukatanga kudzikira, vatengi vanogona kunge vachiri kukanganiswa zvakanyanya nemitengo yemubereko yakakwira nekuda kwekushandiswa kwechikwereti, izvo zvinogona kuwedzera kuwedzera kudiwa uye kushandisa mari nenzira yakakodzera.
Kushandiswa kwemakadhi echikwereti kwawedzera sezvo mwero wekuchengetedza wega uchiramba uchidzikira uye uchienda kune mwero wechikwereti wakaderera (kuverenga kwekupedzisira i4.4) kubva padambudziko guru rezvemari (4.5 muna Nyamavhuvhu 2009). Heano nzira mbiri dzekududzira mwero wekuchengetedza wakaderera: vatengi vane chivimbo uye vanoda kushandisa mari, kana kuti vanoshandisa dhora rega rega ravainaro kuti vawane chekurarama nacho nekukwira kwemitengo.—— Zvakaoma kufungidzira kuti mari inoshandiswa nevatengi iri kukura panguva ino.
Zvinosuwisa kuti kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi nechikafu hazvizivi kana kuti hazvina basa nezvekuti mari yevatengi vekuAmerica yakaita sei —— kukwira kwemitengo mumaindasitiri aya kunokonzerwa sei nekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu, kwete nekusimudzirwa kwezvinodiwa. Chimwe chinhu chekurangarira ndechekuti kukura kwemitengo yemugadziri kwagara kuri kupfuura mitengo yemutengi, saka vamwe vagadziri vanogona kunge vachiri kukanganiswa nemitengo iri kukwira, asi havasati vapfuudza izvi kune vatengi.
Saka kunyange hazvo huwandu hwese hwechikwereti chiri kutenderera hwasvika padanho risati rasvika denda, huri kuwedzera, uye kana mitengo ikaramba ichikwira, zvine musoro kutarisira kuti chikwereti chiri kutenderera chichakwirawo.
Pakutanga, tafura yekutengesa (chati iri pazasi) inogona kugumisa kuti kutengesa kwezvitoro kuri kukura, asi yeuka kuti izvi zvinoyerwa nemari shoma, kwete kugadziriswa nekuda kwe inflation, uye zvinomiririra mitengo yakakwira yekutengesa yezvinhu - kwete simba rehupfumi kana kusimba kwevatengi. Makambani ekugadzira zvinhu haasi ega, uye makambani ebasa netekinoroji achasanganawo nekumanikidzwa mumwedzi iri kuuya, uye kutengesa masheya kunogona kutungamira mukudzingwa mabasa.
Tiri kuona zviratidzo zvakawanda zvekuti kudiwa kwevatengi vemuUS kuri kuramba kuchikanganiswa uye huwandu hwemakontena anounzwa kunze kwenyika huchadzikira kusvika padanho ra2019, saka kutengeserana pakati peSino-US kunonyanya kukoshesa kutengeserana kwacho kwakakosha kudzidzwa.
Tichitarisa huwandu hwese hwezviteshi zvese kubva kuChina kuenda kuUS, tinogona kuona traffic ichidzikira kubva pa "peak season peak" munaGunyana 2021 kusvika Chipiri (ikozvino yadzikira ne51% kubva papeak). Kunyangwe kare (hondo yekutengeserana isati yatanga / kubuda), kubva pakupera kwaKurume kusvika kutanga kwaChivabvu huwandu hwemigwagwa yekutengeserana hwakaderera, asi tinofanirawo kuziva kuti hurumende yeChina muShanghai nedzimwe nzvimbo dzakakosha dzekugadzira (kunyanya dzakatenderedza Beijing uye pedyo nechiteshi chikuru muTianjin) yekudzivirira denda nekudzora uye matanho ekudzivirira akawedzerawo kudzikira kwetraffic.
Kunyangwe paine kuvharirwa, kudzikira kwemotokari munzira huru yekutengeserana kunoita sekusingadzivisiki muna 2022, sezvo huwandu hwakawanda pakati peChina neChina huri padanho risati ramboonekwa uye risingagone kuenderera mberi muna 2021. Iye zvino, neChina yavhurwazve, vamwe vaongorori veindasitiri vakakumbira "kuwedzera kwemakontena," asi zvinoita sekunge kukanganiswa kwekudiwa kwemari kwakanganisa zvakanyanya nzira yekutengeserana.
Hazvina kumbobvira zvaitika, "kukwira kwemudziyo"
Kuwanda kwe "kuwedzera kwemidziyo" kwaitarisirwa kubva kuShanghai (kwaionekwa sekunge kwaive kusaririra panguva yekuvharirwa) kunoita sekunge kwabuda pachiteshi cheNingbo. Nekuda kwezvirambidzo zvemukati menyika (kureva kuvharwa kwemigwagwa), kupinda pachiteshi kwakavharwa zvakanyanya, uye vanotakura zvinhu vakakurumidza kurongazve kutakurwa kuburikidza nechiteshi chikuru chiri pedyo nechiteshi. Kuderera kwekubhuka kutsva (uye huwandu hwekutakura zvinhu) kubva pakavharirwa Shanghai mukupera kwaKurume kwakadzikiswa nekuwedzera kwekutakura zvinhu zvakatorwa kubva kuNingbo. Nekuti vanotakura zvinhu vanomhanyira kuburitsa zvinhu, izvi zvinoitawo kuti nguva dzekutumira zvinhu dzisvike padanho rakaderera kupfuura mamwe ese.
Kunyangwe Shanghai yavhurwazve, huwandu hwemakontena kubva kuChina kuenda kuUnited States huri kuramba huchidzikira, uye kurerutsa matanho matsva ekudzivirira coronavirus chete hazvingaite kuti zvidzorerwe. Nezve data razvino, kana iri "kuwedzera kwemakontena" kubva kuShanghai kuenda kumadoko eUS payakavhurwazve neChitatu chapfuura, izvi hazvina kukosha kana tichienzanisa nezvatakaona kubva kuShanghai kuenda kuUS mumwedzi 18-22 yapfuura. "Kuwedzera" uku kunogona kuchinja zviri nyore mudata redu rekubhuka mumavhiki anotevera, uye kana kudiwa kukadziviswa, pasina mubvunzo kucharatidzwa mazviri, asi kubva neChipiri chapfuura, hakusati kwaitwa nenzira iri pachena.
Kuderera kwehuwandu hwemotokari dzinofamba kubva kuChina kuenda kuUnited States kwakaderedzawo kumanikidzwa kukuru pamitengo yekutakura zvinhu kubva panzvimbo imwe chete kubva padanho rekudiwa. Sezvo huwandu hwemotokari hwakaramba hwakagadzikana mumavhiki ekutanga mushure mekuvharirwa (mushure meKurume 28), mitengo yemotokari yakaderera mumitengo yemotokari dzeChina / East Asia-East-West coast yeFreightos Baltic freight index (41% pamwedzi weFEU kusvika pamadhora $9,630 paFEU, uye 36% kusvika pamadhora $11,907 paFEU). Kune vanotumira zvinhu vanonetseka nemitengo yemotokari dzekutakura zvinhu muna 2021, tinofanirawo kurangarira kuti mitengo yemotokari dzemotokari idzi iri kukwira gore rega rega (73% kuWest Coast uye 59% kuEast Coast).
Kana kubhuka kukaramba kuchiderera muna Chikumi, tinotarisira kuti mitengo yekufamba munzira yekutengeserana ichadzikira, asi makambani ekutakura zvinhu anogona kushanda nesimba kupfuura kare kuti adzivirire mari yaanowana. Vakatoderedza huwandu hwenzvimbo dzekutengeserana huru nekudzima nzira nekuderedza ngarava, asi kana kudzikira kwekubhuka kukawedzera mumavhiki anotevera, tinogona kuona kuti kubatana kwezvikepe kuchaedzwa nesimba risati ramboonekwa uye kutonga.
Kana mitengo yekutakura zvinhu ikatanga kuderera nekukurumidza, zvine musoro kufungidzira kuti makambani ekutakura zvinhu asati abatanidza mabhizinesi avo mazhinji nezvibvumirano zvenguva refu achaderedza mitengo yavo zvakanyanya kuitira kuti vakwikwidzane pamusika wekutengesa zvinhu.
Zvinofadza kuti, hurukuro dzekupedzisira dzevashandi vepachiteshi chengarava muPort of Long Beach muLos Angeles muna 2014-2015 dzakakonzera kukanganiswa kwecheni yekugovera (izvo zvakawedzera zvinhu zvemuUS), zvichikonzera mamiriro akafanana. Izvi zvingasanzwika sezviri zvechokwadi mushure megore rehuwandu hwepamusoro, asi kudzikira kukuru kwemitengo yenzvimbo kunogona kutungamira pakuvandudzwa uye/kana kugadziriswazve kwemubatanidzwa wemari wepagungwa uripo.
Nguva yekutumira: Chikumi-23-2022