A hiki i kēia manawa, ua hoʻōla ʻia nā ukana mokulele mai ka hopena o ke ahulau. Wahi a ka hōʻike mākeke mahina a IATA, ʻo ka nui o nā ukana ukana mokulele i Ianuali he 19.5 pakeneka wale nō ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o 2019. (ʻAʻole i kuhikuhi ʻia nā ʻikepili ma muli o ke ahulau i ka makahiki 2020). Mea hoʻohui, Nā Poloka Kikowaena a me Mea Hoʻomālamalama ʻŌmole Paikikala pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia.
Wahi Nīnau: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis---january-2021/
Ua hōʻike ʻia ua hoʻōla hou ʻia nā mākeke ukana mokulele ma ke ʻano V mai ko lākou hiki ʻana i ka lalo loa i ʻApelila 2020, ʻoiai ke kaumaha nei nā hana ohua o nā mokulele.
ʻAʻole i hōʻike ka ʻikepili i hoʻokuʻu ʻia e ka lawelawe ʻikepili CLIVE o Ladana, ka mea maʻamau e kūlike me IATA, i ka ulu maikaʻi a hiki i Pepeluali. ʻOiai ʻekolu mau lā i emi iho ai ʻo Pepeluali ma mua o Ianuali, ua ikaika loa ka nui o ka ukana, me ka awelika o ka hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia o nā mokulele e kokoke ana i 70 pakeneka a me ka ulu ʻana o kēlā me kēia mahina o 7 pakeneka.
ʻO ke kumukūʻai o nā ʻano halihali āpau a me nā pilikia kaulahao hoʻolako e hōʻike ikaika ana e wela a kaumaha ka mākeke ukana ea i ka hapa aʻe o ka makahiki, me ka ʻole o ka lohi o ka pūnāwai a me ke kauwela ma mua.
Ke hoʻoneʻe nei nā ʻoihana he nui i nā waiwai mai ke ʻano moana a i ka lewa ma muli o ka piʻi ʻana o ke koi, ke kūpikipikiʻō o ke awa, ka lōʻihi o ka manawa kali a me ka nele o nā ipu.
01 Nui nā huahana "mai ke kai a i ka lewa"
E hoʻolohe kākou i ka ʻōlelo a kēia poʻe lawe mai.
1 Ua ʻōlelo ka luna hoʻokele halihali o ka mea lawe paikikala ʻo Canyon bicycle USA:
Hoʻouna ʻia ka hapa nui o nā waihona o kā mākou hui ma ke kai, akā ʻo nā paikikala kaulana loa ma ka lewa, ma muli o ke ahulau, ua piʻi nui kā mākou noi no nā huahana. Eia kekahi, ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki o ka ukana lewa, pono mākou e hoʻokō i nā pono o nā mea kūʻai aku.
Ma mua, ua loaʻa iā mākou ka "hoʻouna mua" ma ke awa hoʻouna ma o ka uku keu, akā i kēia manawa, ʻaʻole pono loa ia, no ka mea, ʻoiai ma ke awa ʻo Los Angeles, ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke loaʻa nā waiwai.
Ma mua o ka maʻi ahulau, ua hala he 20-30 mau lā no kēlā me kēia ukana kai, akā i kēia manawa he 60-70 mau lā. He nui loa kēia hoʻohana ʻana no mākou, a he nui loa ka hopena i kā mākou hana, no laila ʻaʻole hiki ke kali, hiki ke koho wale i ka halihali mokulele.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Brian Bourke, ka Luna Hoʻonui o 2 Secco Logistics:
Inā makemake ʻoe e hoʻouna i kahi ʻauʻau mai Shanghai a i New York ma ke kai, ʻo ke kumukūʻai ma kahi o $1000, ʻo ia hoʻi he 35-45 mau lā, ʻaʻole ia e komo pū me ka manawa kali mua no ka lawe ʻana i ke kai.
A e like me ke kaumaha o ka huahana, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka ukana ma ka lewa ma kahi o $2000-3000. Akā, ʻo ka lawe ʻana i ka ukana ma ka lewa he 3-4 mau lā wale nō. No laila, ʻo ka pālua o ke kumukūʻai hiki ke mālama i 4-7 mau pule, he mea waiwai nui ia no kekahi mau mea hoʻolako a me nā mea lawe mai.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Shawn Richard, ka hope pelekikena o 3SEKO no ka ukana mokulele honua:
ʻO nā lako haʻuki nui, e like me nā papa tennis papaʻaina a me nā mīkini treadmill, lawe pinepine ʻia ma ke kai ma muli o nā pilikia kumukūʻai. Akā i kēia manawa, ma muli o ke ahulau honua, ua koi ʻia ka poʻe he nui e noho ma ka home, e alakaʻi ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ke koi no kēia mau huahana, ka mea e lawe ʻia nei ma ka lewa.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Matt Castle, ka hope pelekikena o 4CH Robinson:
ʻAʻole au i manaʻo e ʻike au i ka mīkini hoʻomaʻemaʻe e lawe ʻia ana i ka lewa, akā i kēia manawa ua hana ʻia. E ʻike mākou i nā waiwai hou aʻe e pono e lawe wikiwiki ʻia e koi ʻia e lawe ʻia ma ka lewa ma mua o ka "kali ʻana".
Ua wela mau ke koi no ka ea
ʻAʻohe hōʻailona o ka hoʻonāwaliwali ʻana o ke koi no ka halihali mokulele.
Ua hōʻike ka PMI i ka ulu ikaika o nā kauoha hana a me nā kauoha hoʻokuʻu aku ma ka honua no nā mahina, e like me ka PMI. Ua haʻahaʻa mau ka lakio o ka waihona kūʻai liʻiliʻi i ke kūʻai aku, a ua huli ka nui o nā mea hoʻouna i ka halihali mokulele e lawelawe i ka waihona o nā huahana koʻikoʻi a kūʻai wikiwiki paha.
Ua wānana ka National Retail Federation, e ulu ana ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā hale kūʻai liʻiliʻi ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma waena o 6.5% a i 8.2%, ʻO ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana i nā makahiki ʻelima i hala aku nei he 4.5. Manaʻo ka International Monetary Fund, e ulu ana ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā hale kūʻai liʻiliʻi ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma waena o 5.1% i ka makahiki 2021, wahi a nā Economists, e ulu ana ka huahana kūloko nui (GDP) ma waena o 4.5 a i 5 pakeneka. Wahi a ka eMarketer a me ke Keʻena Kālepa o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua hoʻolilo ke ahulau i ke kālepa uila i "kaʻaahi holo". Me ka ulu ʻana o nā hale kūʻai liʻiliʻi ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa he 28%, ua piʻi aʻe ka nui o nā hale kūʻai liʻiliʻi ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma waena o 32.4 pakeneka.
Eia kekahi, ua wehe mau nā hale hana he nui i kēia makahiki no ka mea ke paipai nei ke aupuni Kina i nā limahana e hoʻolauleʻa i ka Makahiki Hou ma kahi. ʻO ka hopena, ua hāʻule nā hoʻouna mokulele ma 30 pakeneka wale nō, hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 60 pakeneka maʻamau. No ka laʻana, ua piʻi ka nui o ke kālepa mai Kina a i ʻEulopa ma kahi o ʻelima mau manawa i Pepeluali 2021 i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka manawa like o ka makahiki i hala.
He alakaʻi ʻo ʻAmelika ʻĀkau i nā mākeke mokulele nui, me ka piʻi ʻana o ke koi honua he 8.5% i Ianuali, mai ka 4.4% i Dekemaba. Hana ʻia ka hapa nui o nā hana ma ka Pākīpika a i ʻole ma o nā kikowaena ma ka Hikina Waena ma waho o ʻAsia. Ua hāʻule ka mana honua ma ka ʻāina he 8.5 pakeneka.
No laila, i ke ʻano o ka wela o ke koi no ka ukana ea, pehea e pili ana i ka ukana ea?
03 Kiʻekiʻe mau ka ukana
Ma hope o ka Makahiki Hou Lunar Kina, ua piʻi hou ke kumukūʻai o ka ukana mokulele, ʻoi aku hoʻi ma Asia.
Ua ʻōlelo nā mea loiloi ʻaʻole e hāʻule nui nā kumukūʻai i ka hapa lua o ka makahiki ʻoiai ʻo nā lako no nā mokulele intercontinental nui i koe e noho ana ma lalo o nā pae ma mua o ka maʻi ahulau a ua kauoha nui ʻia ka hiki ke hoʻouna.
Ua wehewehe nā mea nānā mākeke i ka ukana mokulele he mea paʻakikī. Ua hoʻololi ke ahulau i ke ola o ka poʻe a me nā kūlana hoʻokele waiwai. No laila, ʻōlelo nā loea logistics mokulele he paʻakikī ke kuhi i ke kuhikuhi o ka mākeke. ʻO ke koi kiʻekiʻe loa no nā mea lawe mai a me ka nele o nā mokulele i hoʻonui i ka lawe ʻana o ka mokulele ma Asia ma 50% i ka hapa mua o Pepeluali.
Ua hōʻike ʻo FreightWaves SONAR a me nā ʻōkuhi ʻē aʻe ua hoʻopaʻa nā ʻoihana i kēia manawa ma kahi o 2.5 mau manawa ke kumukūʻai o ka halihali mokulele ma nā ala koʻikoʻi ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā makahiki i hala iho nei.
Eia kekahi, ua hāʻule wale nā hoʻouna mokulele ma 30% i ka pule mua ma hope o ka makahiki hou o ka mahina, i hoʻomaka ma Pepeluali 12, ma kahi o ka hapalua o nā makahiki ʻelua mua o ka mokulele, ʻoiai ʻaʻole i hoʻōki ʻo Kina i ka hana i kēia makahiki. ʻO ka ukana ukana o ka mokulele he 1% wale nō ka haʻahaʻa, hoʻohālikelike ʻia me kahi 20% i ka makahiki 2019 a me 2020.
Ua hoʻonui ka hoʻomau ʻana o ka hana ʻana i ke kūpikipikiʻi ma nā awa ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me ʻEulopa, e hoʻopiha nui ana i nā kaulahao lako a me ka hoʻomau ʻana o ke kūpikipikiʻi ma nā awa he nui ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me ʻEulopa. Ua piha nā moku lawe moana i ka hoʻopaʻa ʻia a ʻaʻole lawa nā ipu e hoʻokō ai i ka piʻi ʻana o ke koi mai nā hui he nui.
Ua alakaʻi kēia i nā kumukūʻai kikoʻī mai ʻĀsia a i ke Kahakai Komohana o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma kahi o $5,000 no kēlā me kēia ʻāpana like he kanahā kapuaʻi (he piʻi ʻana o 260 pakeneka ma luna o ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala), ʻoiai nā kumukūʻai kikoʻī i ʻEulopa ʻākau ma mua o $8,000, a ua hoʻoneʻe hou nā mea hoʻouna i nā waiwai i ka lewa.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Robert Frey (Robert Frei) ka luna hoʻomohala ʻoihana o ka air freight index ma ka nūpepa hna air index o Pepeluali he $110,000 ke kumukūʻai e hoʻouna ai i kahi pahu i ʻEulopa ma nā kumukūʻai awelika o ka air freight.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Malaki-18-2021