Sezvo kubuda kwedambudziko idzva rekuparadzwa kwehupfumi hweUS kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera, mimwe mitengo yezvinhu yakatodzikira zvakanyanya, inflation ichadzikira zvakanyanya muna 2024, zvinotarisirwa kusvika pakupera kwegore chinangwa cheFed chekukwira kwemitengo ye2%, data reCPI rakaburitswa neChina rinogona kuratidza "maitiro ekurwisa inflation" ari kuuya. Zvivharo zveChiteshi, Zvinobatanidza zveCentronic uye Zviratidziri zvemabhasikoro zvinofanira kucherechedzwa.
Kudzikira uku kunogona kuita kuti Fed irambe iri munzira yayo yakasimba, musika uchitarisirwa kutanga kudzikiswa kwemitengo yawo yekutanga kutanga kwaKurume.
Asi kana ari Mutungamiri wenyika Joe Biden, zvinogona kumuomera kushandisa mukana wezvematongerwo enyika musarudzo yake, kunyanya sezvo hupfumi hwese huri kudzikira kana kuti mabasa ari kudzikira.
Mushumo weZvita weConsumer Price Index (CPI), wakaburitswa neBureau of Labor Statistics (Bureau of Labor Statistics) neChina, unogona kuita kuti vanhu vanzwe kukanganiswa kwemaitiro e "kurwisa inflation" mumwedzi iri kuuya.
Nhamba dzinoratidza kuti mitengo yezvinhu zvekuAmerica yamira kukwira, uye zvinhu zvakawanda, zvakaita semitengo yemotokari, zvave kudzikira.
Kukwira kwemitengo muUS kuri kudzikira kubva pakukwirira kwakakwira munguva yedenda.
Kune mazwi maviri akafanana mushoko rezvehupfumi —— "deflation" uye "anti-inflation", uye US ingangodaro iri kusangana ne "anti-inflation" (disinflation).
Muhupfumi huri kusangana nematambudziko ekuderedza kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu, mitengo ichiri kukwira.
Zvisinei, dzinokura zvishoma nezvishoma kupfuura kare.
Kukwira kwemitengo kunoramba kuripo, asi kuri padanho rakaderera.
Semuenzaniso, Consumer Price Index (CPI) chiratidzo chikuru chekukwira kwemitengo yemitengo yebhasikiti rezvinhu nemasevhisi, uye US CPI yakakwira ne3.1% muna Mbudzi kubva mugore rapfuura, ichidzika zvakanyanya kubva pa9.1% panguva yedenda muna Chikumi 2022.
Sarah House, nyanzvi yezvehupfumi kuWells Fargo, akati: "Kurwisa kukwira kwemitengo ndiko kwatinoda kuona pari zvino. Kurwisa kukwira kwemitengo ndiko mhedzisiro iri nani pane kudzikira kwemitengo."
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CPI yepakati yeUS inotarisirwa kudzokera ku "nguva yechitatu" Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dziri kutarisira zvakanyanya kuti kukura kweCPI kuchadzoka kubva pa3.1% kusvika pa3.3% muna Zvita, ukuwo kukura kweCPI yepakati, kusasanganisa chikafu nesimba, kunotarisirwa kudzikira kusvika pa3.8% kubva pa4%.
Kana kukura kweCPI kwegore negore kukadarika ne4% kekutanga kubvira muna Chivabvu 2021, zvinogona kukurudzira Fed kuti ive nechivimbo chekuti inflation ichadzokera kune chinangwa chayo che2% panosvika 2024, nokudaro zvichibatanidza tarisiro yekudzikiswa kwemitengo munaKurume.
"Data iri ringangodaro risina simba gore rino."
"Uchiri kuona kuvandudzika mukugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvichideredza mitengo," akadaro Alan Detmeister, nyanzvi yezvehupfumi kuUBS Investment Bank (UBS Investment Bank).
"Tinotarisira kuti kukura kuchaderera zvakanyanya munguva pfupi, asi kwete kuwira mukuderera kwehupfumi."
"Mumwedzi mishoma yapfuura, inflation yakadzikira nekukurumidza kupfuura zvaitarisirwa neWall Street nevezvehupfumi veFed, zvichikonzera tarisiro dzakasimba dzekuti Fed ichaderedza mwero wayo wemubereko zvakanyanya gore rino."
Kufanotaura kwepakati kubva muFOMC dot plot yazvino kunoratidza kuti Fed ingangoderedza mitengo katatu ne25 basis points muna 2024, zvine hutsinye kupfuura zvaitarisirwa nevakuru veFed munaGunyana.
Zvisinei, tarisiro yekuderedzwa kwemitengo yaive yakanyanya kusimba, misika yemubereko wemangwana yaimbove ichibhejera kuti Fed yaizoderedza mitengo nemapoinzi anopfuura 150 muna 2024, ichidzika kusvika pamapoinzi angangoita 120 mushure mekuremerwa nedata risiri rekurima rinopfuura raitarisirwa.
Sekureva kweCME Fed Watch Tool, misika yemangwana yemubereko ikozvino inotarisira mukana we60% wekuderedzwa kwemutengo wekutanga munaKurume, zvishoma pane mukana wekuti 90% yemashoko evaHawkish kubva kuvakuru veFed nemagwaro ekupedzisira.
Kudzikira uku kunoshamisa kwemitengo yezvinhu kunokonzerwa zvikuru nekuderera kwakanyanya kwemitengo yezvinhu zvikuru.
Mitengo yezvinhu zvemuUS yadzikira kwemwedzi mitanhatu yakatevedzana kusvika muna Mbudzi 2023.
Izvi zvinotevera kuwedzera kwekudiwa kwevatengi uye kukanganiswa kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakaita semota nezvipfeko kubva muna Kukadzi 2020 kusvika Chivabvu 2023.
Zvichienderana nezvakanyorwa mumusangano weFed waZvita musi wa3 Ndira, vakuru veFed vakakurukura kana kuvandudzwa kwecheni yekugovera pamusangano wavo wezvematongerwo enyika mwedzi wapera kwaigona kuramba kuchideredza kukwira kwemitengo.
Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinobvunza kana paine mukana wekuvandudza kuwanikwa kwezvinhu.
"Izvi zvinokonzeresa kusava nechokwadi kukuru," akadaro Sarah House, nyanzvi yezvehupfumi kuWells Fargo & Co.).
"Kukwira kwemitengo pakutanga kwakakwira nekukurumidza kupfuura zvaifungidzirwa nemamodheru uye zvakaitika kare, uye ikozvino kunogona kudonha nekukurumidza kupfuura kare."
"Kuti kukwira kwemitengo yedzimba kunogona kupinda mukudzikira nekukurumidza kwakakosha here?" Asi zvimwe zvikamu zveindekisi yemitengo yevatengi, kunyanya muchikamu chebasa, zvichiri kuramba zvichikwira.
Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzicharamba dzichitarisa mitengo yedzimba, iyo iri chikamu chikuru cheCPI, ichitora chikamu chimwe muzvitatu cheCPI yese, uye nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinotarisira kuti zvingatora nguva yakareba kuti zviderere.
Mumwedzi gumi nemiviri kusvika munaKurume 2023, kukwira kwemitengo yedzimba kwakakwira ne8.2%, pamusoro pehuwandu hwe3% kusvika 3.5% mumakore COVID-19 isati yasvika.
Asi kukwira kwemitengo yedzimba kwave kudzikira kubvira ipapo, kuchidzika kusvika pa6.5% kusvika muna Mbudzi, uye nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinowanzo tarisira kuti zvicharamba zvakadaro.
Asi kufambira mberi kuri kunonoka, nekuti dzimba chiratidzo chekunonoka icho chisina kuratidza zvizere kudzikira kwekukura kwerendi muna 2023.
Izvi zvinokonzerwa nekuti vanhu vanoona chete shanduko dzerendi kana rendi yavandudzwa kana kutamiswa kune imwe nzvimbo.
"Panosvika hafu yechipiri yegore rino, tinofanira kuona rendi dzemwedzi nemwedzi dziri pedyo zvikuru nedzakaonekwa COVID-19 isati yatanga," akadaro Detmeister wekuUBS.
Sekureva kweongororo yeBloomberg yakaitwa pakati paZvita 2023, nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinotarisira kuti ——, iyo inonyanya kukosha mu inflation index, ichadzikira kusvika pa2.2% pakupera kwegore, zvichibatsirwa nekuderera kukuru kwe inflation yedzimba muna 2023.
Izvi zviri pedyo nezvinodiwa zvisati zvaitika denda.
Ongororo yevatengi yakaratidza kuva nechivimbo chakawedzerwa mumaonero e inflation —— Kunyangwe izvi zvingave zvine chekuita nekuderera kwemitengo yepeturu muchikamu chekupedzisira chegore.
Mitengo yechikafu ichiri kukwira kubva mugore rapfuura, asi kwete nekukurumidza sezvayaive.
Kukwira kwemitengo yakaderera kunofanira kubatsira Mutungamiri Joe Biden kukunda musarudzo dzaMbudzi sarudzo dzisati dzaitwa nekuti vavhoti vakataura kuti mitengo nehupfumi ndizvo zvinhu zvikuru zvavakaita muongororo.
Asi musika wemabasa usina kusimba —— Vazhinji vevanofembera, kusanganisira UBS (UBS) neWells Fargo (Wells Fargo), vanotarisira kuti musika wemabasa uchadzikira gore rino sezvo mitengo yemubereko yakakwira ichikanganisa kukura kwemitengo nekutsvaga vashandi, nepo musika wevashandi usina kusimba uchigona kukanganisa mabhenefiti ezvematongerwo enyika ekuderera kwemitengo yemitengo yehurumende iripo.
Sarah House, nyanzvi yezvehupfumi kuWells Fargo, akati: "Kana kudzikira uku kuri —— nekuda kwekudzikira kwezvinodiwa uye izvi zvine chekuita nemusika wemabasa, zvinogona kunge zviri kukanganisa hurumende yaBiden."
"" Izvi zvichave musanganiswa we inflation uye kukura kwemusika wemabasa, uye gwara rekuvimba kwevatengi.
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Nguva yekutumira: Ndira-23-2024