Yayin da sabon barkewar lalacewar tattalin arzikin Amurka ke ƙara ƙaruwa, wasu farashin kayayyaki ma sun faɗi sosai, ƙimar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki za ta ƙara faɗuwa a shekarar 2024, ana sa ran zuwa ƙarshen shekara za a cimma burin hauhawar farashin kashi 2% na gwamnatin tarayya, bayanan CPI da aka fitar ranar Alhamis na iya nuna "yanayin hana hauhawar farashin kayayyaki" mai zuwa. Tubalan Tashar, Masu Haɗawa na Centronic kuma Masu Nuna Murfin Keke ya kamata a lura.
Wannan koma bayan tattalin arziki zai iya sa Fed ta ci gaba da kasancewa a kan turbarta, inda ake sa ran kasuwar za ta fara rage darajarta ta farko tun daga watan Maris.
Amma a batun Shugaba Joe Biden, yana iya zama da wahala a gare shi ya yi amfani da damar siyasa a yakin neman zabensa, musamman ganin yadda tattalin arzikin gaba daya ke raguwa ko kuma rashin aikin yi ke raguwa.
Rahoton Ma'aunin Farashin Masu Amfani da Kaya na Disamba (CPI), wanda Ofishin Kididdigar Ma'aikata (Ofishin Kididdigar Ma'aikata) ya fitar a ranar Alhamis, zai iya sa mutane su ji tasirin yanayin "yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kaya" a cikin watanni masu zuwa.
Kididdiga ta nuna cewa farashin kayayyaki na Amurka ya daina tashi gaba ɗaya, kuma yawancin kayayyaki, kamar farashin motoci, sun koma faɗuwa.
Hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a Amurka na raguwa daga mafi girman lokacin annobar.
Akwai kalmomi guda biyu makamantan haka a cikin kalmar tattalin arziki —— "deflation" da "anti-inflation", kuma wataƙila Amurka tana fuskantar "anti-inflation" (an rage kumbura).
A cikin tattalin arzikin da ke fuskantar yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kaya, har yanzu farashin yana ƙaruwa.
Duk da haka, suna girma a hankali fiye da da.
Hauhawar farashi ta ci gaba da kasancewa mai kyau, amma a ƙananan matakai.
Misali, Ma'aunin Farashin Masu Amfani (CPI) muhimmin ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ne da ke nuna matsakaicin farashin kayayyaki da ayyukan yau da kullun, kuma CPI na Amurka ya karu da kashi 3.1% a watan Nuwamba idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, wanda ya ragu sosai daga kololuwar kashi 9.1% a lokacin annobar a watan Yunin 2022.
Sarah House, babbar mai sharhi kan tattalin arziki a Wells Fargo, ta ce: "Abin da muke son gani a yanzu shi ne yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya fi sakamako mafi kyau fiye da rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki."
"
Ana sa ran babban CPI na Amurka zai koma ga "zamani na 3". Masana tattalin arziki suna sa ran karuwar CPI za ta sake dawowa daga kashi 3.1% zuwa kashi 3.3% a watan Disamba, yayin da ake sa ran karuwar CPI ta asali, ban da abinci da makamashi, za ta ragu zuwa kashi 3.8% daga kashi 4%.
Idan ci gaban CPI na shekara-shekara ya ragu da kashi 4% a karon farko tun daga watan Mayu na 2021, hakan na iya sa Fed ta ƙara samun kwarin gwiwa cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai koma ga burinta na kashi 2% nan da shekarar 2024, don haka za ta ƙarfafa tsammanin rage darajar kuɗin watan Maris.
"Bayanan za su yi rauni sosai a wannan shekarar."
"Har yanzu kuna iya ganin ci gaba a fannin wadata kayayyaki yana haifar da raguwar farashin kayayyaki," in ji Alan Detmeister, masanin tattalin arziki a Bankin Zuba Jari na UBS (Bankin Zuba Jari na UBS).
"Muna sa ran ci gaban zai ragu sosai a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, amma ba zai faɗa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki ba."
"A cikin 'yan watannin da suka gabata, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ragu da sauri fiye da yadda masana tattalin arziki na Fed suka yi tsammani, wanda hakan ya haifar da tsauraran tsammanin cewa Fed zai rage yawan ribarsa sosai a wannan shekarar."
Hasashen matsakaici daga sabon shirin FOMC ya nuna cewa Fed zai iya rage farashin akalla sau uku da maki 25 a shekarar 2024, wanda ya fi ƙarfin jami'an Fed da ake tsammani a watan Satumba.
Duk da haka, tsammanin rage darajar kuɗi ya fi tsauri, tare da kasuwannin gaba na ƙimar riba da zarar sun yi fare cewa Fed zai rage ƙimar da maki sama da 150 a cikin 2024, wanda ya faɗi zuwa kusan maki 120 bayan an ɗora shi da fiye da yadda ake tsammani bayanai na ba na gona ba.
A cewar CME Fed Watch Tool, kasuwannin gaba na ƙimar riba yanzu suna tsammanin damar kashi 60% na raguwar ƙimar farko a watan Maris, ƙasa da kusan kashi 90% na yiwuwar maganganun sha'awa daga jami'an Fed da mintuna.
Wannan faɗuwar farashi mai ban mamaki ya faru ne saboda raguwar farashin kayayyaki a cikin manyan kayayyaki.
Farashin kayayyaki na asali a Amurka ya faɗi tsawon watanni shida a jere har zuwa Nuwamba 2023.
Hakan ya biyo bayan karuwar bukatar masu sayayya da kuma katsewar farashin kayayyaki kamar motoci da tufafi daga watan Fabrairun 2020 zuwa Mayun 2023.
A cewar bayanan taron Fed na watan Disamba da aka fitar a ranar 3 ga Janairu, jami'an Fed sun tattauna ko inganta hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki a taron manufofinsu a watan da ya gabata na cewa yanayin zai iya ci gaba da rage hauhawar farashin.
Masana tattalin arziki suna tambaya ko akwai ƙarin sarari don inganta wadatar kayayyaki.
"Wannan babban tushen rashin tabbas ne," in ji Sarah House, babbar masaniyar tattalin arziki a Wells Fargo & Co.).
"Farashin kayayyaki ya fara tashi da sauri fiye da yadda aka tsara a baya da kuma abubuwan da suka faru a baya, kuma yanzu yana iya faɗuwa da sauri fiye da da."
"Ko hauhawar farashin gidaje zai iya shiga cikin saurin raguwa yana da mahimmanci. Amma sauran sassan ma'aunin farashin masu amfani, musamman a ɓangaren ayyuka, suna ci gaba da ƙaruwa."
Masana tattalin arziki za su ci gaba da sa ido sosai kan hauhawar farashin gidaje, babban bangare na CPI, wanda ya kai kusan kashi daya bisa uku na jimillar CPI, kuma masana tattalin arziki suna tsammanin zai iya daukar lokaci mai tsawo kafin a rage.
A cikin watanni 12 zuwa Maris 2023, hauhawar farashin gidaje ya kai kashi 8.2%, wanda ya fi yadda aka saba gani na kashi 3% zuwa 3.5% a shekarun da suka gabaci COVID-19.
Amma hauhawar farashin gidaje ya ragu tun daga lokacin, inda ya ragu zuwa kusan kashi 6.5% har zuwa watan Nuwamba, kuma masana tattalin arziki gabaɗaya suna tsammanin zai ci gaba da hakan.
Amma ci gaban yana da ɗan jinkiri, domin gidaje alama ce ta jinkiri wadda ba ta nuna cikakken raguwar hauhawar haya a shekarar 2023 ba.
Wannan wani ɓangare ne saboda mutane suna ganin canje-canjen haya ne kawai lokacin da aka sabunta hayar ko aka ƙaura zuwa sabon wuri.
"A rabin shekarar nan, ya kamata mu ga haya na wata-wata ya yi daidai da wanda aka gani kafin barkewar COVID-19," in ji Detmeister daga UBS.
A cewar wani bincike da Bloomberg ta gudanar a tsakiyar Disamba 2023, masana tattalin arziki suna tsammanin ——, babban ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kaya, zai faɗi zuwa kashi 2.2% nan da ƙarshen shekara, wanda ya taimaka sakamakon raguwar hauhawar farashin gidaje cikin sauri a shekarar 2023.
Wannan ya yi kusa da ka'idojin da aka gindaya kafin barkewar cutar.
Binciken masu amfani da kayayyaki ya nuna ingantacciyar kwarin gwiwa a hasashen hauhawar farashin kaya —— Ko da yake wannan na iya kasancewa da alaƙa da raguwar farashin mai a kwata na ƙarshe na shekara.
Farashin abinci har yanzu yana ƙaruwa idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, amma ba da sauri kamar yadda yake ba.
Ƙarancin hauhawar farashin kaya da kansa ya kamata ya taimaka wa Shugaba Joe Biden ya sake lashe zaɓe kafin zaɓen watan Nuwamba saboda masu zaɓe sun ambaci farashi da tattalin arziki a matsayin manyan abubuwan da ke haifar da su a zaɓen.
Amma kasuwar aiki mai rauni —— Masu hasashen yanayi da yawa, ciki har da UBS (UBS) da Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo), suna tsammanin kasuwar aiki za ta yi rauni a wannan shekarar yayin da hauhawar riba ke shafar ci gaba da ɗaukar ma'aikata, yayin da raguwar kasuwar aiki na iya lalata fa'idodin siyasa na rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ga gwamnati mai ci.
Sarah House, babbar masanin tattalin arziki a Wells Fargo, ta ce: "Idan wannan koma bayan tattalin arziki ya kasance —— sakamakon rage buƙatu kuma wannan yana da alaƙa da kasuwar aiki, zai iya zama abin da zai iya kawo cikas ga gwamnatin Biden."
"" Wannan zai zama cakuda hauhawar farashin kaya da karuwar kasuwar aiki, da kuma alkiblar amincewa da masu amfani.
"
Lokacin Saƙo: Janairu-23-2024