Ngentsasa kaDisemba 8, i-renminbi ekwi-offshore kunye ne-offshore zanyuka kunye, zombini zifikelela kwinqanaba lazo eliphezulu likaMeyi, eliphakamileyo elitsha ukusukela ngoMeyi 2018. Kutheni izinga le-yuan linamandla kangaka? Ungawujonga njani umkhwa wexesha elizayo? I-yuan inyuke ngokuchasene nedola kangangeenyanga ezintathu zilandelelana ukusukela ngoSeptemba. Ukusukela kulo nyaka, izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB ngokubanzi liqhubekile nokukhula kwalo ukusukela ngoJuni 2020. Izibalo zibonisa ukuba malunga namanqaku ali-10 ngoDisemba 8, i-RMB ekwi-offshore xa ithelekiswa nezinga lokutshintshiselana ledola yaseMelika inyuke nge-2.85% kulo nyaka, ngelixa i-index yedola yaseMelika inyuke nge-6.88% kwixesha elifanayo. Phantsi kwemvelaphi yezinga lokutshintshiselana ledola elinamandla, izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB likhuphe umkhwa ngaphandle komkhwa ozimeleyo. Ukusukela ngoDisemba 3, i-index yezinga lokutshintshiselana le-CFETS RMB, ebonisa utshintsho oluqhelekileyo lwezinga lokutshintshiselana le-yuan xa ithelekiswa nebhasikithi yemali, ibikwe kwi-102.66, ephezulu kakhulu ukusukela ngoDisemba 2015, kwaye yanyuka nge-8.25% ukusuka ekupheleni kukaDisemba 2015. 2020. Iplagi yokudipha, Isokhethi yoMthwali weChip kwaye izibonisi zendlela eziluhlaza kufuneka kuqatshelwe.
UZhang Yu, umhlalutyi oyintloko we-Huachuang Securities, uthe ukusukela ngoSeptemba 2021, izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB liye laguquka kakhulu kwi-dollar index, ukubuya kwe-dollar index akunciphisi kodwa kuyenyuka, kwaye ibhaskithi ye-RMB exchange rate index ikwinqanaba elinamandla.
IBhanki yabantu yaseTshayina ibhengeze ngoDisemba 6 ukuba iza kunciphisa ngokupheleleyo umlinganiselo wemfuno yokugcina imali ngamanqaku eepesenti eziyi-0.5 ngoDisemba 15, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ikhuphe malunga ne-12,000 yuan yeemali zexesha elide. Ngokuqhelekileyo kukholelwa ukuba ukukhululwa kwemali eninzi kuya kubeka uxinzelelo kwizinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali yasekhaya ngendlela yezinga lenzala. Nangona kunjalo, isibhengezo sokuncitshiswa kwe-RRR asizange sichaphazele ukusebenza kakuhle kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB. Ukusukela ngoDisemba 7, izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB liye laphawulwa ngokunyuka okukhawulezileyo.
Kutheni inamandla kangaka?Kutheni izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB lingaphuma kwimarike ezimeleyo?Imvumelwano yemarike yenze izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB lihlale lizinzile ngokukhuthaza ukusebenza koqoqosho okuzinzileyo, ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kokungena kwemali yangaphandle, kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wemali ozinzileyo.Ngokuphathelele ukuncitshiswa kwe-RRR, umntu ofanelekileyo ophethe iBhanki Yabantu yaseTshayina ugxininise ukuba ukujoliswa komgaqo-nkqubo wemali okrelekrele akutshintshanga, kwaye ukuncitshiswa kwe-RRR kukusebenza rhoqo komgaqo-nkqubo wemali. IBhanki Yabantu yaseTshayina inamathela kumgaqo-nkqubo wemali oqhelekileyo, igcina ukuqhubeka, uzinzo kunye nozinzo lwemigaqo-nkqubo, ayizalisi ukunkcenkceshela, kwaye iya kudala imeko-bume efanelekileyo yemali neyezemali yophuhliso oluphezulu kunye nohlengahlengiso lwesakhiwo kwicala lokubonelela. Izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB yexesha elifutshane lihlala liqinile, linika ingqalelo esondeleyo kutshintsho lwesimo sengqondo sebhanki ephakathi. Umrhwebi wetshintshiselwano lwangaphandle webhanki edibeneyo kumbindi weTshayina uthe ukutshintshiselana kwemali yangaphandle ekupheleni konyaka kuyasebenza, ukutshintshiselana kwemali yangaphandle kweebhanki ezinkulu kwehla kakhulu, kulindeleke ukuba ukusebenza kwesantya sokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB yexesha elifutshane kusenamandla, kufuneka kunike ingqalelo esondeleyo kwisimo sengqondo sebhanki ephakathi kunye nendima yokuthintela ukudlula kobuchwephesha okubalulekileyo kutshintshiselwano. izinga. Nangona kunjalo, ukwabonise ukuba ibhanki ephakathi isenezixhobo ezaneleyo zokugcina izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-yuan likwinqanaba elifanelekileyo lokulingana, kodwa ngoku iqaphela, ibhanki ephakathi ikhetha ukuvumela amandla emarike ukuba asebenze kwizinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB, okanye aphucule ngabom ukuguquguquka kwayo. Phakathi kuNovemba, ingqungquthela yendlela yokuziqeqesha kwimarike yelizwe yokutshintshiselana ngezimali ibonise ukuba imeko yangoku yezoqoqosho neyezemali yehlabathi iyinkimbinkimbi kwaye iyatshintsha, uqoqosho oluphambili umgaqo-nkqubo wemali webhanki ephakathi waqala ukulungelelanisa, uchaphazela izinga lokutshintshiselana, izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB kwixesha elizayo linokuba lixabiso, linokwehla ixabiso, ukuguquguquka kweendlela ezimbini kuqhelekile, ibhalansi efanelekileyo yinjongo, ukuphambuka kuhambelana namandla okulungisa.
Isiphumo sokuxinana kwetshaneli yokuhlawula utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle sinokubonakala ekupheleni konyaka. Umphandi weGalaxy futures macro uthe umkhwa oqinileyo wakutshanje wezinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB ubangelwa yimpembelelo yokuxinana kweendlela zokuhlawula utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka. Kwinqanaba lokuqala, izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB belinamandla, kwaye amashishini angenayo imali yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ayathandabuza ukuthengisa utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kwiibhanki ngamaxabiso aphantsi, kodwa anethemba lokuthengisa utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kwiibhanki ngamaxabiso aphezulu otshintshiselwano, oko kukuthi, ayathandabuza ukuthengisa okanye ukuthengisa ngotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle. Nangona kunjalo, xa izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB lihlala liqinile ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, kulula ukubangela isiphumo sokuxinana kwetshaneli yokuhlawula utshintshiselwano, kwaye isiphumo sokuxinana kwetshaneli yokuhlawula utshintshiselwano siya kuphakamisa ngakumbi izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB liphezulu, kwaye umngcipheko wezinga lokutshintshiselana uya kubonakala kwaye ubangelwa ngamashishini angenayo imali yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle afana nokuthumela ngaphandle. Abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike babonise ukuba ngokwembali, ekupheleni konyaka, ngenxa yokuxinana kweendlela zokuhlawula utshintshiselwano lwamashishini athumela ngaphandle, izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB lisebenze kakuhle kwixesha elininzi. Amathuba okuba isiphumo sokuxinana kweendlela zokuhlawula utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle sinokunyuka kulo nyaka. Ukuguquguquka okubini yindlela enkulu Abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike babonise ukuba kutshanje Idatha yokuthumela ngaphandle yasekhaya ekhutshiweyo igcine izinga lokukhula eliphezulu, nangona intsalela yorhwebo iphantsi kunokuba bekulindelwe, kodwa isagcinwe kwinqanaba eliphezulu, ixhasa ukusebenza okuqinileyo kwe-RMB. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwexesha elifutshane kuya kuxhasa i-renminbi, enokwenzeka ukuba ibuyele umva kunyaka ozayo. UGao Weidong, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwi-Everbright Securities, ukhankanye ukuba njengoko ubhubhane unciphisa kancinci imida kwikhonkco lokubonelela, indlela yokukhula kokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ekhaya isenokucotha, kwaye ukuncipha kwentsalela yorhwebo kuya kunciphisa imfuno yokuhlawula kunye nokuthengisa utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, kwaye ngaloo ndlela kunciphisa inkxaso yezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB kwinqanaba lokubonelela kunye nemfuno. Kukwakho nabantu abangaphakathi kwikhosi yokufunda ukuba uxabiso lwakutshanje lwezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB luchaphazeleka ngakumbi zizinto zexesha lonyaka, alunakwenza ulwahlulo oluchanekileyo lwendlela yexesha elifutshane. Enyanisweni, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ukusebenza kwemarike yokwenyani kuye kwabonisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukuba ukuguquguquka kweendlela ezimbini yindlela eqhelekileyo yokusebenza kwenqanaba lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB. Abantu abangaphakathi kwishishini bakholelwa ukuba izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB elizayo liya kuhlala lizinzile kwinqanaba elifanelekileyo nelilinganayo, kwaye ligcine iphethini esisiseko yokudada ngeendlela ezimbini. Kodwa Umgama we-yuan ohamba macala omabini unokuba mkhulu kunowalo nyaka.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Disemba-13-2021