Stephen Jen, tsohon mai tsara manufofin kuɗi na Morgan Stanley, ya gabatar da sanannen "murmushin dala": dala tana ƙaruwa lokacin da tattalin arziki ya yi muni kuma ya wadata. Tubalan Tashar Jirgin Kasa ta Din, D-Sub Hoods kuma Masu Nuna Tsaron Hanya ya kamata a lura.
Tare da —— a kan hauhawar farashin da gwamnatin tarayya ta yi kamar gaggafa, ma'aunin dala ya kai sabon matsayi a cikin shekaru 20, kuma kuɗaɗen da ba na Amurka ba sun faɗi sosai.
Saboda halin da dala ta Amurka take ciki a tsarin kuɗi na duniya, cinikin ƙasashen duniya gabaɗaya yana daidaita da dala ta Amurka. Idan kuɗin ƙasar ya faɗi sosai idan aka kwatanta da dala ta Amurka, farashin shigo da kaya zai ƙaru sosai a lokaci guda. Don haka mun ga masu siye da yawa a cikin abokan cinikin da ba 'yan Amurka ba suna neman rangwame, jinkirta biyan kuɗi, da sokewa.
Ga mafi girman raguwar darajar wannan shekarar, wasu ƙasashe, 'yan kasuwan ƙasashen waje suna jigilar waɗannan kasuwannin, dole ne su kula da tsaron biyan kuɗi!
Lambar Yuro 1
Yuro ta faɗi da kashi 15 cikin ɗari idan aka kwatanta da dala zuwa yanzu a wannan shekarar. A ranar 22 ga Agusta, Yuro ta faɗi ƙasa da daidaiton da aka samu da dala a karo na biyu a wannan shekarar, inda ta faɗi zuwa 0.9926, matakin mafi ƙanƙanta tun shekarar 2002. Kuma da alama raguwar darajar Yuro ta fara.
Morgan Stanley yana sa ran Yuro za ta faɗi zuwa 0.97 a kwata yayin da Fed ke ƙara ƙarfi, kuma Nomura ya yi niyya ga 0.975 a ƙarshen Satumba, kafin kasuwanni su yi tsammanin 0.95 ko ƙasa da haka yayin da matsin lambar samar da wutar lantarki ke ƙara haɗarin katsewar wutar lantarki.
Masana tattalin arziki sun yi tsammanin cewa CPI na yankin Yuro zai kai kashi 9% a watan Agusta, wani babban ci gaba kuma ya ninka abin da aka sa gaba sau hudu na kashi 2%, yayin da ƙarancin Yuro ya ƙara ta'azzara matsalolin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta hanyar ƙara farashin shigo da kaya.
LAMBA. Fam 2
Fam ɗin ya fuskanci mafi munin watan tun bayan zaɓen Brexit na 2016 a watan Agusta, lokacin da ya faɗi da sama da kashi 4 cikin ɗari idan aka kwatanta da dala. Sterling ya faɗi da kashi 11.8 cikin ɗari idan aka kwatanta da dala zuwa yanzu a wannan shekarar, wanda hakan ya sa ya zama ɗaya daga cikin kuɗaɗen da suka fi yin fice a G10.
Goldman Sachs ya yi imanin cewa Birtaniya za ta iya fadawa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki a kwata na huɗu. Citi ya yi hasashen cewa hauhawar farashin kaya a Burtaniya zai ragu da kashi 18 cikin 100 a watan Janairun 2023.
LAMBA. 3 sabo
Yen ya ɗan yi ciniki na ɗan lokaci kuma ya faɗi sama da dala zuwa Y 139.50 a kasuwar kuɗi ta Tokyo a ranar 1 ga Satumba, matakin da ya fi ƙanƙanta a cikin shekaru 24. A watan Agusta kaɗai, Yen ya faɗi kusan kashi 4% kuma ya faɗi sama da kashi 18% zuwa yanzu a wannan shekarar!
Duk da haka, Bankin Japan bai shirya shiga tsakani a kan raunin yen ba. Haruhiko Kuroda, shugaban Bankin Japan, kwanan nan ya jaddada cewa manufofin kuɗi ba su dogara ne akan yen ba, amma sun dogara ne akan farashi.
Rauni na Yen hakika yana da kyau ga fitarwa, amma kuma ya haifar da hauhawar farashin kayan da aka shigo da su daga waje. Kimanin kashi 60 cikin 100 na kamfanonin da aka yi bincike a kansu sun ce saurin raguwar Yen ya shafi ayyukansu, a cewar wani bincike da Bankin Bayanai na Imperial Japan ya gudanar. Daga cikin kamfanoni sama da 10,000 da aka yi bincike a kansu, kashi 61 cikin 100 sun ce raunin Yen yana da "mummunan tasiri". Bankin Bayanai na Imperial ya ce raguwar Yen ya haifar da fadada fitar da kayayyaki ba ya nuna ba, amma ya kara farashin shigo da kayayyaki.
Nasara ta 4 ta lashe
Gasar cin kofin Koriya ta Kudu ta faɗi zuwa mafi ƙasƙanci tun daga shekarar 2009, kuma ta faɗi da kashi 11 cikin ɗari idan aka kwatanta da dalar Amurka zuwa yanzu a wannan shekarar.
Gwamnan Bankin Koriya Cheung-yong Rhee ya ce farashi ba zai iya kawar da yuwuwar bin Fed don ya fita daga kan mulki ba. Bankin Koriya yanzu ya ɗaga hasashensa na ci gaban ma'aunin farashin masu amfani (CPI) zuwa 5.2% a wannan shekarar. CPI na Koriya ta Kudu ya tashi da kashi 6.3% a watan Yuli idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, daga kashi 6% a watan Yuni kuma a matakin mafi girma tun bayan rikicin kuɗi na Nuwamba 1998.
Lambar 5 Lira ta Turkiyya
A wannan shekarar, darajar lira ta Turkiyya ta ragu da kusan kashi 26 cikin 100 a tsakiyar watan Agusta.
Turkiyya yanzu ita ce "sarkin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a duniya," inda ta karu da kashi 79.6 cikin 100 a kowace shekara a watan Yuli, wanda ya kai matsayi mafi girma a cikin shekaru 24. A Istanbul, birnin da ya fi yawan jama'a a Turkiyya, farashin ya tashi da kashi 99 cikin 100 a watan Yuli idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata.
'Yan kasuwa a Turkiyya sun ce a da suna sayen jakunkunan abinci kuma suna biyan ƙasa da lielas 100, amma yanzu suna iya siyan ƴan fam don kayan zaki, abubuwan ciye-ciye da soda. Turkawa sun yarda cewa kayan abinci na yau da kullun sun zama abin jin daɗi, "a cikin mummunan yanayi".
Lambar 6 ta peso ta Argentina
Hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta kai kashi 71% a watan Yuli, mafi girma a cikin kusan shekaru 30, kuma masana tattalin arziki sun yi tsammanin zai ƙara hauhawa zuwa kashi 90% kafin ƙarshen shekara! A halin yanzu, kasuwar peso ta Argentina (baƙar fata) ta karya alamar tunani ta peso 300 a ranar 19 ga Yuli kuma ta faɗi zuwa mafi ƙarancin peso 338 a ranar 22 ga Yuli. A kasuwar gwamnati, peso ta Argentina ta kuma rasa kashi 37% idan aka kwatanta da dala a cikin shekarar da ta gabata.
Argentina tattalin arziki ne da ke da nufin fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ƙasashen waje wanda ke shigo da kayayyaki masu yawa daga ƙasashen waje. Karuwar makamashi da albarkatun ƙasa da sauran kayayyaki na ƙasashen duniya ya ƙara hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ake shigowa da su daga ƙasashen waje, yayin da faduwar darajar kuɗin ke ƙara ta'azzara matsin lambar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ake shigowa da su daga ƙasashen waje. Domin hana hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, babban bankin Argentina yana sayar da daloli kowace rana don gujewa raunana farashin peso.
Bugu da ƙari, babban bankin Argentina ya fitar da Sanarwa Mai Lamba A7532 a ranar 27 ga Yuni, inda ya faɗaɗa sa ido kan shigo da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje zuwa tsarin kuɗaɗen shigo da kayayyaki don ayyuka da kayayyakin lasisi marasa atomatik na tsawon watanni uku zuwa 30 ga Satumba na wannan shekara. Kwanan nan, Hukumar Kwastam ta Argentina ta fara yaƙi da keta haƙƙin cinikayyar shigo da kayayyaki da fitar da kayayyaki, galibi sun haɗa da bayar da rahoton ƙarya game da farashin kayayyaki a cinikin shigo da kaya da fitar da kayayyaki, kamar ƙarancin takardar kuɗi a buɗe da takardar kuɗi mai yawa. Matakin farko na gyaran ya shafi kasuwanci 13,640 da kamfanoni 722, inda jimillar farashin kayayyaki ya kai kusan dala biliyan 1.25.
LAMBA 7 Fam ɗin Masar
—— Farashin alkama ya tashi a duniya, wanda hakan ya sanya Masar ta zama babbar mai shigo da alkama daga ƙasashen waje a duniya, kuma sun fuskanci matsala, inda wasu farashin abinci ya tashi da kashi 66 cikin ɗari, wanda hakan ya sa hauhawar farashin ya kai kashi 15 cikin ɗari.
Fam ɗin Masar a halin yanzu yana ciniki akan $19.1, na biyu mafi ƙanƙanta a tarihi, kuma yana ƙasa da haka ne kawai a lokacin faɗuwar hunturu na 2016.
'Yan kasuwa na ƙasashen waje sun ba da rahoton cewa fitar da kayayyaki zuwa Masar ya makale a tashar jiragen ruwa saboda masu saye ba za su iya bayar da takardar bashi ba.
Lambar 8 ta Forint ta ƙasar Hungary
Manyan kuɗaɗen shiga a Gabashin Turai suma sun fuskanci wani koma-baya sakamakon koma-bayan tattalin arzikin yankin Turai da kuma ƙarancin kuɗin euro.
Har yanzu dai darajar kudin kasar Hungary ba ta kai darajar lira ta Turkiyya ba a wannan shekarar, inda ta yi asarar sama da kashi 26 cikin 100 idan aka kwatanta da dala. Kafafen yada labarai na kasar Hungary ma sun ba da rahotanni kan batutuwan "Forin ita ce mafi rauni a duniya", "An yi wa Forin kaca-kaca" da kuma "Forin ta fadi da yardar kaina idan aka kwatanta da dala da Yuro".
NO.9, Zloty, Poland
Zloty na Poland ya yi asarar kashi 12% idan aka kwatanta da dala tun daga karshen watan Fabrairu. Yanzu hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya kai kashi 15.7%.
Poland, wadda ke kai wa Rasha hari, ta fuskanci takunkumin da aka kakaba mata. Poland babbar kasa ce da ke samar da wutar lantarki ta kwal a Turai kuma babbar mai samar da kwal a Tarayyar Turai, tana samar da fiye da tan miliyan 50 na kwal a shekara, amma har yanzu tana shigo da kimanin tan miliyan 12 na kwal a shekara. Miliyoyin gidaje na Poland za su fuskanci karancin kwal a lokacin hunturu bayan shawarar da gwamnatin Poland ta yanke na sanya takunkumi kan kwal din Rasha.
Lokacin Saƙo: Oktoba-18-2022