Zvinokonzera Kuchinjana Kwemari uye Maonero Eramangwana
1. Pfungwa Yekuchinja Kwenguva Pfupi
Munguva pfupi, mwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB uri kunze kwenyika ucharamba uchidzorwa netarisiro dzekutaurirana kwemitero. Kana mativi ese maviri akatumira zviratidzo zvakanaka (sekutangazve hurukuro dzepamusoro kana kujekesa runyorwa rwekudzikiswa kwemitero), mwero wekutsinhana unogona kukwira nekukurumidza kusvika pa7.25. Kana hurukuro dzikasvika pakusagadzikana kana US ikawedzera matanho emitero, mwero wekutsinhana unogona kusvika pa7.35-7.40. Pamusoro pezvo, zvinotarisirwa neFederal Reserve monetary policy uye mafambiro ari muUS Dollar Index zvichaisawo kumanikidzwa kwekunze paRMB. bhokisi rekupedzisira risina zvikukuru, zvinobatanidza denderedzwa regoko uye chinongedzo chezvivharo zveterminal zvinofanira kucherechedzwa.
2. Zvinhu Zvinoumba Hurongwa Hwepakati Nepakati Nerefu
Kunyangwe hurukuro dzemitero dziri kutaurwa nezvadzo pari zvino, mafambiro enguva yepakati nerefu eRMB exchange rate achiri kuenderana nezvinhu zvakakosha. Ruzivo rwehupfumi rweChina mukota yekutanga runoratidza kusimba kwezvinodiwa zvemuno, uye mitemo yekusimudzira kukura ichatsigira mwero wekuchinjana. Zvisinei, kukanganisa kwemutemo weUS we "reciprocal tariff" pakutengeserana kunze kwenyika kunoda kungwarira, kunyanya sezvo kushanduka kwemitengo yekuchinjana kunogona kuwedzera pasi pemaitiro ekutengeserana kwepasi rose.
3. Bhokisi reZvishandiso zveMutemo uye Kupindira kweMusika
Bhanga rePeople's Bank of China (PBOC) rakagadzirisa tarisiro yemusika kuburikidza nezvishandiso zvakaita sekutungamira kwehuwandu hwepakati uye kugadzirisa zvinhu zvinorwisana nekuchinja kwemamiriro ezvinhu. Mune ramangwana, rinogona kutora matanho akadai sekugadzirisa chiyero chekuchengetedza njodzi yekutsinhana kwemari yekune dzimwe nyika uye kugadzirisa liquidity yemusika wekunze kwenyika kuderedza tarisiro yekuderera kwemari nenzira imwe chete. Zvakaitika kare zvinoratidza kuti PBOC ine chido chakasimba chekupindira pamatanho akakosha (semuenzaniso, 7.35-7.40), ichipa "pasi risingazivikanwe" rehuwandu hwekutsinhana.