Mayar da Hankali Kan | Rikicin tattalin arziki! Canjin manufofin Amurka, Turai da Japan yana da wuya a tantance

Ya zuwa ranar 15 ga watan Agusta, Amurka ta fitar da bayanan tattalin arzikinta na kwata na biyu. Amurka, Turai da Japan sun kauce wa mummunan hasashen koma bayan tattalin arziki a rabin farko na shekarar kuma tattalin arzikin ya ci gaba da kasancewa mai juriya. An bambanta ƙimar ci gaban manyan ƙasashe uku, inda Amurka ke sama da kashi 2%. Tushen Tashar bazara，D-sub hood kuma Ya kamata a lura da na'urar nuna hasken keke.

Nan gaba kaɗan, tasirin hauhawar riba ko hauhawar farashin kaya zai ci gaba da haifar da ƙalubale, kuma manyan ƙasashe uku na tattalin arziki suna fuskantar zaɓin canjin manufofi, amma har yanzu yana da wuya a tantance hanyar.

Amurka: Tasirin hauhawar riba akan ayyukan tattalin arziki

A rabin farko na wannan shekarar, tattalin arzikin Amurka ya ragu da farko sannan ya tashi.

Tattalin arzikin da ke cikin kwata na biyu ya yi sauri sosai idan aka kwatanta da kwata na farko, amma bayanai a rabin farko na shekarar idan aka kwatanta da rabin na biyu na shekarar da ta gabata har yanzu suna nuna raguwar ci gaban tattalin arziki.

Bloomberg ta ruwaito cewa kashe kuɗin masu amfani da kuma faɗaɗa harkokin tattalin arziki sun ragu sakamakon matsin lamba daga hauhawar farashin riba.

A cewar Ma'aikatar Kasuwanci, ainihin jimillar kayayyakin cikin gida (GDP) ya karu da kashi 4.9% da 3.4% a kwata na uku da na huɗu na shekarar da ta gabata. Ya karu da kashi 1.4% a kwata na farko, wanda ya fi yadda aka yi tsammani a kwata na biyu.

Dangane da bayanan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da aka sa ido sosai a kansu, ma'aunin farashin kashe kuɗi na masu amfani da kayayyaki na Fed (PCE), wanda aka fi so a nuna hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, ya tashi da kashi 2.6% a ƙimar shekara-shekara a kwata na biyu, ƙasa daga kashi 3.4% a kwata na farko.

Banda farashin abinci da makamashi mai canzawa, babban PCE ya tashi da kashi 2.9% na shekara-shekara a kwata na biyu, wanda hakan ya ragu sosai daga kashi 3.7% a kwata na farko.

Adadin rashin aikin yi a Amurka ya karu da kashi 0.1 cikin ɗari na wata-wata zuwa kashi 4.1 cikin ɗari a watan Yuni, mafi girman matakin tun daga watan Nuwamba na 2021, wanda ke nuna wata na uku a jere da aka samu ƙaruwar.

Masanin tattalin arziki na Bloomberg Eliza Wenger na tsammanin raguwar kasuwar aiki da raguwar karuwar kudaden shiga za su ƙara rura wutar koma bayan da ake samu a fannin kashe kudaden masu amfani da kayayyaki.

" Jaridar Wall Street Journal ta lura cewa yayin da tattalin arziki ke tafiya da kyau ta hanyoyi da dama kuma saurin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ragu, Amurkawa da yawa ba su gamsu da hauhawar farashin abinci, motoci da gidaje ba fiye da yadda suke a shekarun baya.

Bloomberg ta ruwaito cewa jarin gidaje yana yin mummunan tasiri ga ci gaban tattalin arziki a karon farko cikin shekara guda, yayin da hauhawar farashin jinginar gida ke takaita ayyukan tallace-tallace da sabbin ayyukan gini.

Bugu da ƙari, raguwar ci gaban kuɗin shiga na mutum ɗaya na iya nufin raguwar ƙarfin kashe kuɗi a nan gaba.

Tattalin arzikin Amurka kuma yana fuskantar jerin rashin tabbas.

A cewar littafin Beige Book na Fed, wadanda suka amsa suna tsammanin raguwar farashin kayayyaki a cikin watanni shida masu zuwa saboda damuwa game da zaben Amurka mai zuwa, manufofin cikin gida, rikice-rikicen siyasa da rashin tabbas game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.

Desmond Rahman, masanin tattalin arziki a Cibiyar Harkokin Kasuwanci ta Amurka, ya yi imanin cewa akwai wasu matsaloli da dama da ka iya haifar da mummunan tasiri ga tattalin arzikin Amurka.

Waɗannan haɗarin sun haɗa da yiwuwar "bala'i mai jinkirin tafiya" a cikin kadarorin kasuwanci, wanda zai iya haifar da rikicin bankunan yanki, ƙara tsananta manufofin kariyar gwamnatin Amurka, da kuma yiwuwar yaɗuwar rikicin Isra'ila da Falasɗinawa zuwa sauran yankunan Gabas ta Tsakiya.

Da aka tambaye shi ko tsammanin rage darajar kudin watan Satumba ya dace, Shugaban Fed Colin Powell ya ce a wani taron manema labarai bayan taron watan Yuli cewa ba a yanke shawara kan shawarwarin da za a yanke a taron na gaba ba.

Amma ya ce bayanan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na baya-bayan nan sun ƙara wa Fed kwarin gwiwa game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.

"Muna ganin lokacin rage darajar riba yana gabatowa."

"Yan kasuwa suna tsammanin Fed za ta rage damar kashi 56.5 cikin 100 da kuma damar kashi 53.5 cikin 100 na rage maki 50 a taronta na watan Satumba.

A ranar 31 ga Yuli, 'yan kasuwa sun yi tsammanin samun kashi 85.5% na damar da Fed za ta iya rage darajar riba da maki 25 a taronta na watan Satumba.